PREDICTIONS: Lomachenko vs Kambosos

PREDICTIONS: Lomachenko vs Kambosos

Vasiliy Lomachenko and George Kambosos Jr are set to meet for the vacant IBF lightweight title this weekend on ESPN+ and ESPN, live on Saturday night (U.S. time) from Australia (where it actually happens on Sunday afternoon local time).

Will Lomachenko (17-3, 11 KO) find himself with a world title once again, or will it be Kambosos (21-2, 10 KO) pulling another surprise

We’ve got three predictions and a joke!

Bet on Lomachenko vs Kambosos and more boxing with DraftKings Sportsbook!

Scott Christ (19-2)

Kambosos is a good fighter, and he does have a shot here, but I think the main shot is all on Lomachenko being cooked, injured, or shafted by the judges. But even on that last part, I could see a scenario where Kambosos genuinely does (1) win enough early rounds, partially through Lomachenko’s own habits of “downloading information” in the early going, and then (2) having enough of an argument in enough rounds later on that nicking this one and that one in his direction would hardly be the most heinous thing you’ve ever seen in this “sport.”

If you’re a Kambosos fanatic or part of his team or whatever, this probably all sounds overly harsh. After all, for a fact, he beat Teofimo Lopez, Lomachenko didn’t. It’s just that I have seen several other Kambosos fights. I have a great respect for Kambosos, and his career and journey. This is not a guy who got it all handed to him, or the path laid out and lined with gold, he went out and made it happen. And if he gets on a roll, he’s a fighter who excels when he’s built confidence.

He can win this fight, I think. It’s an underdog’s chance, but there are paths to victory. I don’t think he will, though. Lomachenko is still very good and I think the style matchup is going to be really tough on Kambosos. It’ll go the distance, Lomachenko will solidly win seven to nine rounds, and he’ll get the cards. Lomachenko UD-12

Wil Esco (17-4)

I’ve never hidden the fact that I don’t think all that much of Kambosos as a fighter. And it’s not that I have anything personal against the guy but I’m not a fan of his limited style and I think he’s clearly displayed those limitations over his last three outings. He has a bit of craft but he’s not a big puncher, a speedster, a defensive wizard, nor a ring general.

Really, Kambosos only chance in this fight, as I see it, comes from the chance that Lomachenko has slipped to the point where he should just retire. I don’t think he’s quite there yet, so I’m going to take him to win a clear unanimous decision despite the home field advantage for Kambosos. Lomachenko UD-12

Patrick Stumberg (18-3)

Kambosos’ upset of Teofimo Lopez wasn’t a “fluke” in the sense of it being a fundamentally atypical performance from either man. The one area where Kambosos genuinely excels is walking opponents into close-range combinations, which meshed perfectly with Lopez’s penchant for lunging, unsafe leads. Kambosos’ problem is that he can’t really force those sorts of exchanges rom opponents who won’t play along; if you stick-and-move the way Hughes or Haney did, all Kambosos has is sound but unremarkable boxing.

You don’t beat Lomachenko with sound but unremarkable boxing. He’s more than skilled enough to follow the blueprint other technicians left for him, and while Kambosos does have noteworthy height and reach advantages, he’s nowhere near as adept at using them as Haney is. That leaves the Lopez approach to beating Lomachenko, but “hope that Lomachenko’s shoulder exploded during training camp and he takes seven rounds to build the courage to punch” is a bit of a longshot.

Kambosos is not a bad fighter. He’s just absolutely the wrong kind of fighter to beat even an aging and inactive “High-Tech.” Lomachenko UD-12

John Hansen (17-4)

Kambosos KO-1

Current Lomachenko vs Kambosos odds

At the moment, DraftKings Sportsbook have Lomachenko listed as a -700 favorite, meaning you’d have to bet $700 to win $100 on a Lomachenko victory, and Kambosos as a +475 underdog, meaning a $100 bet would give you $475 if he pulls the upset.

The oddsmakers favor Lomachenko to win by decision, with that specific outcome at -175, but it’s just +240, not a huge shocker, for the Ukrainian to win by KO, TKO, or DQ. Kambosos is +750 by decision and +1400 to stop Lomachenko. The draw is at +2000, which is about standard.

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